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Evaluate Ltd the leading life science market intelligence company specialised in consensus forecasts, today announced the release of its latest report “Pharmaceutical Innovation in Europe.” The report is the first to analyse the European drug market to 2022, based on consensus drug forecasts, utilising data from Evaluate’s newly launched “European Drug Forecasts” module.
The forecasts indicate the market is set to grow from € 169 billion in 2015 to € 206 billion in 2022, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate of 3.2 percent over the period. Growth is largely due to innovations in oncology, although step-change advances are also emerging across other therapy areas including multiple sclerosis, chronic heart failure, rheumatoid arthritis and Alzheimer’s.
“New innovations, leading to significantly improved patient outcomes, come with higher drug prices, physician’s willingness to prescribe, and, therefore, higher consensus drug forecasts,” said Antonio Iervolino, Evaluate’s Head of Forecasting. “In a system, ultimately paid for by governments, this raises questions on the sustainability of the current funding model and presents challenges for payers in Europe. To reduce the friction between payers and industry, a new collaborative approach to funding needs to be established, ultimately reflecting the benefits that some of the new innovations are generating throughout the whole healthcare value chain.”
Key findings from the report include:
Alongside duration of efficacy the eventual price of treatment and manufacturing is explored.
Humira (2022 sales of € 1.462 billion) loses its number one position to Xarelto (2022 sales of € 2.607 billion) as the top selling drug in Europe by 2022, but is expected to keep its market leadership position despite biosimilar threats.
Xarelto tops the bestseller list, strongly supported by analysts’ consensus (worldwide sales in 2022 anticipated at about $8 billion) and fuelled by the expected expansion into follow-on indications such as chronic heart failure.
The hepatitis C storm will slowly fade away as Sovaldi (2015 sales of € 1.443 billion to 2022 sales of € 609 million) and Harvoni (2015 sales of € 2 billion to 2022 sales of € 887 million) will be affected by increasing pricing pressure in addition to a reduction in the number of addressable patients.
Oncology will lead the game with five compounds in the top 10, all of which are coming from recent development activities with the exception of Herceptin (2015 sales of € 2.117 billion to 2022 sales of € 1.383 billion), which is set to lose ground due to the anticipated launch of competing biosimilars.
In the respiratory area, while some new innovations are slowly surfacing (e.g. GSK’s Nucala 2022 sales of € 407 million), generic competition will force the respiratory blockbusters – Spiriva (2015 sales of € 1.421billion and 2022 sales of € 676 million) and Seretide/Advair (2015 sales of € 1.553 billion and 2022 sales of € 675 million) – out of the top selling elite.
Complimentary copies of the forecast report Pharmaceutical Innovation in Europe can be downloaded at: www.evaluategroup.com/innovationinEurope.
The figures presented are based on EvaluatePharma’s European Drug Forecasts, the first European dataset based on government and company reported data. The forecasts enable a thorough horizon scanning of the European landscape by providing product level forecasts for 300 in-line and 500+ pipeline assets. Sales projections in 2022 are based on consensus forecast information at Worldwide, Rest of World and European level, and further modeled with Evaluate’s proprietary inputs – trending of historical sales, analogue-based uptake and erosion curves, time to market benchmarks. Follow Evaluate on Twitter or LinkedIn for additional information, and to access our reports.
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