{"id":63022,"date":"2026-07-21T08:42:32","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T08:42:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.evaluate.com\/?p=63022"},"modified":"2026-07-21T09:02:34","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T09:02:34","slug":"why-forecasts-miss-the-mark","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.evaluate.com\/ja\/article\/why-forecasts-miss-the-mark\/","title":{"rendered":"Forcast Lesson\u2460\u306a\u305c\u88fd\u85ac\u4f01\u696d\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u5916\u308c\u308b\u306e\u304b\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u88fd\u85ac\u4f01\u696d\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u58f2\u4e0a\u4e88\u6e2c\uff08\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30ad\u30e3\u30b9\u30c6\u30a3\u30f3\u30b0\uff09\u306f\u3001\u88fd\u9020\u8a08\u753b\u304b\u3089\u4e8b\u696d\u958b\u767a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5224\u65ad\u3001\u5546\u696d\u6226\u7565\u307e\u3067\u3001\u591a\u304f\u306e\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u306e\u57fa\u76e4\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u306b\u3082\u304b\u304b\u308f\u3089\u305a\u3001\u591a\u304f\u306e\u4f01\u696d\u304c\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3084\u4e88\u6e2c\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u306b\u8ab2\u984c\u3092\u62b1\u3048\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u3067\u306f\u3001\u306a\u305c\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u5916\u308c\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u306e\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30a8\u30d0\u30ea\u30e5\u30a8\u30fc\u30c8\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u4e88\u6e2c\u652f\u63f4\u90e8\u9580\u306b\u52e4\u3081\u300110\u5e74\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306b\u308f\u305f\u308a\u533b\u85ac\u54c1\u696d\u754c\u306e\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30ad\u30e3\u30b9\u30c6\u30a3\u30f3\u30b0\u306b\u643a\u308f\u3063\u3066\u304d\u305fAndrew\u6c0f\u3068\u3001\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30ad\u30e3\u30b9\u30c6\u30a3\u30f3\u30b0\u652f\u63f4\u30fb\u30a2\u30c9\u30d0\u30a4\u30b6\u30ea\u30fc\u696d\u52d9\u3092\u62c5\u5f53\u3059\u308bKris Barker\u6c0f\u306f\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u5931\u6557\u306f\u300c\u8a08\u7b97\u30df\u30b9\u300d\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u300c\u8a2d\u8a08\u3084\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u306e\u554f\u984c\u300d\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u591a\u3044\u3068\u6307\u6458\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u5916\u308c\u308b\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u306a\u8981\u56e0<\/h3>\n<p>\u5148\u65e5\u958b\u50ac\u3055\u308c\u305f\u5f53\u793e<a href=\"https:\/\/www.evaluate.com\/webinar\/pharmaceutical-forecasting-webinar-key-principles-insights\/ target=\"><u>\u30a6\u30a7\u30d3\u30ca\u30fc<\/u><\/a>\u3067\u306f\u3001\u88fd\u85ac\u4f01\u696d\u3067\u3088\u304f\u898b\u3089\u308c\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u8ab2\u984c\u3068\u3057\u3066\u4ee5\u4e0b\u304c\u7d39\u4ecb\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u5358\u7d14\u3059\u304e\u308b<\/strong>\uff1a\u77ed\u671f\u9593\u3067\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u4f5c\u6210\u3057\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\u5834\u5408\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u3084\u7af6\u5408\u306e\u5909\u5316\u3092\u5341\u5206\u306b\u53cd\u6620\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u30b7\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u3059\u304e\u308b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u306a\u308a\u304c\u3061\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u8907\u96d1\u3059\u304e\u308b<\/strong>\uff1a\u53cd\u5bfe\u306b\u3001\u591a\u304f\u306e\u4eee\u5b9a\u3084\u8a08\u7b97\u5f0f\u3092\u76db\u308a\u8fbc\u307f\u3059\u304e\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u6839\u62e0\u304c\u898b\u3048\u306a\u304f\u306a\u308a\u3001\u7ba1\u7406\u3084\u66f4\u65b0\u304c\u96e3\u3057\u304f\u306a\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u4e0d\u8db3<\/strong>\uff1a\u7279\u306b\u65b0\u85ac\u3084\u65b0\u898f\u9069\u5fdc\u75c7\u3067\u306f\u5229\u7528\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304c\u9650\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u3001\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u306e\u9ad8\u3044\u4eee\u5b9a\u306b\u4f9d\u5b58\u3057\u305f\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u306a\u308a\u3084\u3059\u304f\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u76ee\u6a19\u6570\u5b57\u304b\u3089\u9006\u7b97\u3057\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046<\/strong>\uff1a\u672c\u6765\u306f\u5e02\u5834\u3084\u60a3\u8005\u304b\u3089\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u7a4d\u307f\u4e0a\u3052\u308b\u3079\u304d\u3068\u3053\u308d\u3092\u3001\u300c\u6765\u5e74\u306f\u58f2\u4e0a\u25cb\u5104\u5186\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u671f\u5f85\u5024\u3092\u8d77\u70b9\u306b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u69cb\u7bc9\u3057\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u30b1\u30fc\u30b9\u3082\u5c11\u306a\u304f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u8b1b\u5e2b\u9663\u306f\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u9650\u308a\u72ec\u7acb\u304b\u3064\u5ba2\u89b3\u7684\u306b\u69cb\u7bc9\u3059\u3079\u304d\u3060\u3068\u5f37\u8abf\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u30b3\u30df\u30e5\u30cb\u30b1\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u4e0d\u8db3<\/strong>\uff1a\u610f\u5916\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u307e\u305b\u3093\u304c\u3001\u512a\u308c\u305f\u4e88\u6e2c\u3067\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3082\u3001\u8aac\u660e\u306e\u4ed5\u65b9\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u5931\u6557\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u793e\u5185\u306e\u30b9\u30c6\u30fc\u30af\u30db\u30eb\u30c0\u30fc\u304c\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u524d\u63d0\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u3001\u305d\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u6d3b\u7528\u3055\u308c\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>\u554f\u984c\u306f\u6570\u5b57\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u300c\u69cb\u9020\u300d\u306b\u3042\u308b<\/h3>\n<p>\u591a\u304f\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u6539\u5584\u30d7\u30ed\u30b8\u30a7\u30af\u30c8\u3067\u306f\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u3092\u4fee\u6b63\u3059\u308b\u3001\u4eee\u5b9a\u3092\u898b\u76f4\u3059\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u8ffd\u52a0\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3063\u305f\u5bfe\u5fdc\u304c\u884c\u308f\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u5f53\u793e\u304c\u5f37\u8abf\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001\u300c\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u5358\u306a\u308b\u6570\u5b57\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3092\u652f\u3048\u308b\u4ed5\u7d44\u307f\u3067\u3042\u308b\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8003\u3048\u65b9\u3067\u3059\u3002\u00a0\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3092\u9ad8\u3081\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306f\u3001<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5e02\u5834\u3092\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304b<\/li>\n<li>\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5c06\u6765\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304b<\/li>\n<li>\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5c06\u6765\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u3092\u53cd\u6620\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304b<\/li>\n<li>\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u8aac\u660e\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8a2d\u8a08\u305d\u306e\u3082\u306e\u3092\u898b\u76f4\u3059\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u826f\u3044\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u300c\u30b7\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u300d\u304b\u3089\u59cb\u307e\u308b<\/h3>\n<p>Andrew\u6c0f\u304c\u7e70\u308a\u8fd4\u3057\u8a9e\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001\u300c\u30b7\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u306b\u59cb\u3081\u3001\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u3068\u304d\u3060\u3051\u8907\u96d1\u5316\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8003\u3048\u65b9\u3067\u3059\u3002\u00a0\u300d\u4e88\u6e2c\u62c5\u5f53\u8005\u306f\u3001\u7af6\u5408\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u3001\u60a3\u8005\u30bb\u30b0\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u3001\u4fa1\u683c\u5909\u52d5\u306a\u3069\u306e\u591a\u8981\u7d20\u3092\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3060\u3051\u591a\u304f\u53cd\u6620\u3057\u305f\u304f\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u8907\u96d1\u3055\u304c\u5897\u3048\u308b\u307b\u3069\u3001\u66f4\u65b0\u304c\u96e3\u3057\u304f\u306a\u308b\u3001\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u304c\u5897\u3048\u308b\u3001\u8aac\u660e\u304c\u96e3\u3057\u304f\u306a\u308b \u3068\u3044\u3046\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3082\u9ad8\u307e\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u512a\u308c\u305f\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3068\u306f\u3001<strong>\u8907\u96d1\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u8907\u96d1\u3055\u3060\u3051\u3092\u6301\u3063\u305f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb<\/strong>\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u6b21\u56de\u4e88\u544a<\/h3>\n<p>\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u6539\u5584\u3059\u308b\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b69\u306f\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u3092\u898b\u76f4\u3059\u3053\u3068\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u307e\u305a\u306f\u3001\u300c\u826f\u3044\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u306f\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u539f\u5247\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u304b\u300d\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u6b21\u56de\u306eLesson\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5f53\u793e\u304c\u63d0\u5531\u3059\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u8a2d\u8a08\u306e\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u5247\u3067\u3042\u308b <strong>CATS<\/strong>\u00a0\uff08Consistency \/ Applicability \/ Transparency \/\u00a0Simplicity\uff09\u306e\u8003\u3048\u65b9\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u89e3\u8aac\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>\u95a2\u9023\u30bd\u30ea\u30e5\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3<\/h3>\n<h4>\u4e88\u6e2c\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u306e\u6a19\u6e96\u5316\u30fb\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5316\u3092\u691c\u8a0e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u65b9\u3078<\/h4>\n<p>\u58f2\u4e0a\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u8ab2\u984c\u306f\u3001\u5358\u306a\u308b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3084Excel\u306e\u554f\u984c\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3001\u7d44\u7e54\u6a2a\u65ad\u3067\u306e\u5408\u610f\u5f62\u6210\u306a\u3069\u8907\u6570\u306e\u8981\u7d20\u304c\u95a2\u4fc2\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u30a8\u30d0\u30ea\u30e5\u30a8\u30fc\u30c8\u3067\u306f\u3001\u88fd\u85ac\u4f01\u696d\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u80fd\u529b\u5411\u4e0a\u3092\u652f\u63f4\u3059\u308b\u5404\u7a2e\u30b5\u30fc\u30d3\u30b9\u3092\u63d0\u4f9b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u00a0\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u69cb\u7bc9\u304b\u3089\u76e3\u67fb\u30ec\u30d3\u30e5\u30fc\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u62c5\u5f53\u8005\u5411\u3051\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30cb\u30f3\u30b0\u307e\u3067\u5e45\u5e83\u304f\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u2713\u00a0\u3053\u3093\u306a\u65b9\u306b\u304a\u3059\u3059\u3081<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u898b\u76f4\u3057\u305f\u3044<\/li>\n<li>\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3092\u5411\u4e0a\u3055\u305b\u305f\u3044<\/li>\n<li>\u4e0a\u5e02\u54c1\u306b\u5408\u308f\u305b\u305f\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u5b9f\u65bd\u3057\u305f\u3044<\/li>\n<li>\u793e\u5185\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u3092\u6a19\u6e96\u5316\u3057\u305f\u3044<\/li>\n<li>\u30c1\u30fc\u30e0\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u30ec\u30d9\u30eb\u3092\u5e95\u4e0a\u3052\u3057\u305f\u3044<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.evaluate.com\/ja\/solutions\/pharma-forecasting-platform\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u304a\u5ba2\u69d8\u306e\u8981\u4ef6\u306b\u5408\u308f\u305b\u305f\u30ab\u30b9\u30bf\u30de\u30a4\u30ba\u30c9\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u69cb\u7bc9<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n<p><u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.evaluate.com\/ja\/solutions\/pharmaceutical-forecasting-software\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u75ab\u5b66\u3001\u58f2\u4e0a\u4e88\u6e2c\u3001\u304c\u3093\u9818\u57df\u3001\u60a3\u8005\u30d5\u30ed\u30fc\u306b\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3057\u305f\u3001Excel\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u30bd\u30d5\u30c8\u30a6\u30a7\u30a2<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n<p><u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.evaluate.com\/ja\/solutions\/evaluate-pharma\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u904e\u53bb\u3068\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u30fb\u30b7\u30a7\u30a2\u3092\u5206\u6790\u3057\u4eca\u5f8c\u306e\u5c55\u958b\u3092\u898b\u636e\u3048\u308b\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30fb\u30a4\u30f3\u30c6\u30ea\u30b8\u30a7\u30f3\u30b9<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n<p><u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.evaluate.com\/ja\/consulting\/forecasting-consulting\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u65e2\u5b58\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u691c\u8a3c\u304b\u3089\u91cd\u8981\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u306e\u6e96\u5099\u3001\u7d44\u7e54\u5168\u4f53\u3067\u306e\u6574\u5408\u6027\u5f37\u5316\u307e\u3067\u652f\u63f4\u3059\u308b\u76e3\u67fb\u30b5\u30fc\u30d3\u30b9<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n<p><u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.evaluate.com\/ja\/solutions\/forecasting-training\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u30c1\u30fc\u30e0\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u30ec\u30d9\u30eb\u3092\u5e95\u4e0a\u3052\u30fb\u6a19\u6e96\u5316\u3059\u308b\u533b\u85ac\u54c1\u4e88\u6e2c\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30cb\u30f3\u30b0<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u88fd\u85ac\u4f01\u696d\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u58f2\u4e0a\u4e88\u6e2c\uff08\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30ad\u30e3\u30b9\u30c6\u30a3\u30f3\u30b0\uff09\u306f\u3001\u88fd\u9020\u8a08\u753b\u304b\u3089\u4e8b\u696d\u958b\u767a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5224\u65ad\u3001\u5546\u696d\u6226\u7565\u307e\u3067\u3001\u591a\u304f\u306e\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u306e\u57fa\u76e4\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u306b\u3082\u304b\u304b\u308f\u3089\u305a\u3001\u591a\u304f\u306e\u4f01\u696d\u304c\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3084\u4e88\u6e2c\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u306b\u8ab2\u984c\u3092\u62b1\u3048\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u3067\u306f\u3001\u306a\u305c\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43],"tags":[],"content-hub":[],"template-style":[],"class_list":["post-63022","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article"],"acf":{"use_alternative_header_image":"No (delete to use alternative)","alternative_header_image":null,"banner_image":"","author_image":"","author":"","author_title":"","author_image_copy":"","author_copy":"","author_title_copy":"","form_field":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forcast Lesson\u2460\u306a\u305c\u88fd\u85ac\u4f01\u696d\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u5916\u308c\u308b\u306e\u304b\uff1f | Evaluate<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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