{"id":63033,"date":"2026-07-21T08:53:10","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T08:53:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.evaluate.com\/?p=63033"},"modified":"2026-07-21T08:53:10","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T08:53:10","slug":"4-principles-of-excellent-predictive-models","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.evaluate.com\/ja\/article\/4-principles-of-excellent-predictive-models\/","title":{"rendered":"Forcast Lesson\u2461\u512a\u308c\u305f\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e4\u539f\u5247\uff08CATS\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u6539\u5584\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3068\u3001\u591a\u304f\u306e\u4f01\u696d\u306f\u307e\u305a\u300c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u300d\u3084\u300c\u8a08\u7b97\u30ed\u30b8\u30c3\u30af\u300d\u306b\u76ee\u3092\u5411\u3051\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u30a8\u30d0\u30ea\u30e5\u30a8\u30fc\u30c8\u3067\u306f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u524d\u306b\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u3079\u304d\u3082\u306e\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u308c\u304c\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u8a2d\u8a08\u306e\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u5247\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u826f\u3044\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u306f\u5171\u901a\u70b9\u304c\u3042\u308b<\/h3>\n<p>\u30a8\u30d0\u30ea\u30e5\u30a8\u30fc\u30c8\u306f\u3001\u512a\u308c\u305f\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b4\u3064\u306e\u5171\u901a\u539f\u5247\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-63035\" src=\"https:\/\/www.evaluate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4-principles_rtb_jp-300x168.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"369\" \/><\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4>\u2460C =\u00a0Consistency\uff08\u4e00\u8cab\u6027\uff09<\/h4>\n<p>\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u3001\u4e00\u8cab\u3057\u305f\u69cb\u9020\u3067\u3042\u308b\u307b\u3069\u904b\u7528\u3057\u3084\u3059\u304f\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u8b1b\u5e2b\u306f\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u9593\u3067\u898b\u305f\u76ee\u3084\u69cb\u6210\u3001\u5165\u529b\u30fb\u51fa\u529b\u306e\u8003\u3048\u65b9\u304c\u7d71\u4e00\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5229\u7528\u8005\u306f\u8ff7\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306a\u304f\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u60c5\u5831\u306b\u30a2\u30af\u30bb\u30b9\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3068\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u3001<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5165\u529b\u30b7\u30fc\u30c8\u306e\u914d\u7f6e<\/li>\n<li>\u51fa\u529b\u30ec\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u306e\u69cb\u6210<\/li>\n<li>\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u66f4\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u3000\u304c\u6bce\u56de\u7570\u306a\u308b\u5834\u5408\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u7406\u89e3\u3084\u30ec\u30d3\u30e5\u30fc\u306b\u4f59\u8a08\u306a\u6642\u9593\u304c\u304b\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u4e00\u65b9\u3067\u4e00\u8cab\u6027\u306e\u3042\u308b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u3001<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5f15\u304d\u7d99\u304e\u304c\u5bb9\u6613<\/li>\n<li>\u30ec\u30d3\u30e5\u30fc\u304c\u52b9\u7387\u7684<\/li>\n<li>\u30b9\u30c6\u30fc\u30af\u30db\u30eb\u30c0\u30fc\u304c\u7406\u89e3\u3057\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3000\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30e1\u30ea\u30c3\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>\u2461A = Applicability\uff08\u76ee\u7684\u9069\u5408\u6027\uff09<\/h4>\n<p>\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u7528\u9014\u306b\u5fdc\u3058\u3066\u8a2d\u8a08\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u3001\u88fd\u9020\u8a08\u753b\u5411\u3051\u4e88\u6e2c\u306a\u3089<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>SKU\u5225<\/li>\n<li>\u6708\u6b21<\/li>\n<li>\u56fd\u5225\u3000\u307e\u3067\u5fc5\u8981\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u4e00\u65b9\u3067\u4e8b\u696d\u958b\u767a\u3084\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u30d5\u30a9\u30ea\u30aa\u6226\u7565\u5411\u3051\u4e88\u6e2c\u306a\u3089\u3001\u305d\u3053\u307e\u3067\u8a73\u7d30\u306a\u7c92\u5ea6\u306f\u5fc5\u305a\u3057\u3082\u5fc5\u8981\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u306e\u306f\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u76ee\u7684\u306b\u9069\u3057\u305f\u30ec\u30d9\u30eb\u306e\u8a73\u7d30\u3055\u3092\u6301\u305f\u305b\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h4>\u2462T = Transparency\uff08\u900f\u660e\u6027\uff09<\/h4>\n<p>\u30a8\u30d0\u30ea\u30e5\u30a8\u30fc\u30c8\u306f\u3001\u900f\u660e\u6027\u306f\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u4fe1\u983c\u6027\u3092\u4e0e\u3048\u308b\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u8981\u7d20\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4e88\u6e2c\u7d50\u679c\u3060\u3051\u3067\u306a\u304f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u751f\u307f\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u4eee\u5b9a\u3084\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u660e\u78ba\u306b\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u30b9\u30c6\u30fc\u30af\u30db\u30eb\u30c0\u30fc\u304c\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3057\u3084\u3059\u304f\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u524d\u63d0\u6761\u4ef6\u5909\u66f4\u3084\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u5206\u6790\u306b\u3082\u67d4\u8edf\u306b\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h4>\u2463S = Simplicity\uff08\u30b7\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u3055\uff09<\/h4>\n<p>\u4e88\u6e2c\u62c5\u5f53\u8005\u306f\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u8907\u96d1\u3055\u3092\u53cd\u6620\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u5fc5\u8981\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306b\u8907\u96d1\u5316\u3057\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u3053\u3068\u304c\u591a\u3005\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u300c\u307e\u305a\u30b7\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u306b\u69cb\u7bc9\u3057\u3001\u6b63\u5f53\u306a\u7406\u7531\u304c\u3042\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306e\u307f\u8907\u96d1\u5316\u3059\u308b\u300d\u3053\u3068\u304c\u63a8\u5968\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8907\u96d1\u306a\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u5fc5\u305a\u3057\u3082\u512a\u308c\u305f\u4e88\u6e2c\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u3080\u3057\u308d\u3001\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u8907\u96d1\u3055\u3060\u3051\u3092\u6301\u3063\u305f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3053\u305d\u304c\u3001\u904b\u7528\u3057\u3084\u3059\u304f\u3001\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u3084\u3059\u304f\u3001\u66f4\u65b0\u3057\u3084\u3059\u3044\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>CATS\u306f\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u30ec\u30d3\u30e5\u30fc\u306b\u3082\u4f7f\u3048\u308b<\/h3>\n<p>\u73fe\u5728\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u3001<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u4e00\u8cab\u6027\u306f\u3042\u308b\u304b<\/li>\n<li>\u5229\u7528\u76ee\u7684\u306b\u5408\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b<\/li>\n<li>\u8aac\u660e\u53ef\u80fd\u304b<\/li>\n<li>\u904e\u5270\u306b\u8907\u96d1\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3000\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b\u3060\u3051\u3067\u3082\u3001\u591a\u304f\u306e\u6539\u5584\u70b9\u304c\u898b\u3064\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u30a8\u30d0\u30ea\u30e5\u30a8\u30fc\u30c8\u3067\u306f\u3001\u58f2\u4e0a\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u7cbe\u901a\u3057\u305f\u30b3\u30f3\u30b5\u30eb\u30bf\u30f3\u30c8\u306b\u3088\u308b\u76e3\u67fb\u30b5\u30fc\u30d3\u30b9\u3092\u63d0\u4f9b\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5916\u90e8\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u306b\u3088\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u7cbe\u5ea6\u30ec\u30d3\u30e5\u30fc\u306b\u3054\u95a2\u5fc3\u3092\u304a\u6301\u3061\u3044\u305f\u3060\u3051\u308b\u65b9\u306f\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3088\u308a\u304a\u6c17\u8efd\u306b\u304a\u554f\u3044\u5408\u308f\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p><u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.evaluate.com\/ja\/consulting\/forecasting-consulting\/\">\u58f2\u4e0a\u4e88\u6e2c\u76e3\u67fb\u30b5\u30fc\u30d3\u30b9<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u2713 \u4e0b\u8a18\u306e\u8ab2\u984c\u306b\u5fdc\u3048\u307e\u3059:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u73fe\u884c\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u4e88\u6e2c\u624b\u6cd5\u3068\u524d\u63d0\u306f\u3001\u672c\u5f53\u306b\u6700\u9069\u3067\u4fe1\u983c\u306b\u8db3\u308b\u3082\u306e\u304b\uff1f<\/li>\n<li>\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3084\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u3001\u975e\u52b9\u7387\u3092\u751f\u3080\u771f\u306e\u30c9\u30e9\u30a4\u30d0\u30fc\u306f\u3069\u3053\u306b\u6f5c\u3093\u3067\u3044\u308b\u306e\u304b\uff1f<\/li>\n<li>\u81ea\u793e\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u3001\u696d\u754c\u306e\u30d9\u30b9\u30c8\u30d7\u30e9\u30af\u30c6\u30a3\u30b9\u3068\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u3066\u3069\u306e\u30ec\u30d9\u30eb\u306b\u3042\u308b\u306e\u304b\uff1f<\/li>\n<li>\u4e00\u8cab\u6027\u3068\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306e\u9ad8\u3044\u58f2\u4e0a\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u5b9f\u73fe\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\u30c1\u30fc\u30e0\u306e\u30b9\u30ad\u30eb\u30fb\u30c4\u30fc\u30eb\u30fb\u30a2\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u3092\u3069\u3046\u9032\u5316\u3055\u305b\u308b\u3079\u304d\u304b\uff1f<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\u95a2\u9023\u30bd\u30ea\u30e5\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3<\/h2>\n<h3>\u58f2\u4e0a\u4e88\u6e2c\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u306e\u6a19\u6e96\u5316\u30fb\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5316\u3092\u691c\u8a0e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u65b9\u3078<\/h3>\n<p>\u58f2\u4e0a\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u8ab2\u984c\u306f\u3001\u5358\u306a\u308b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3084Excel\u306e\u554f\u984c\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3001\u7d44\u7e54\u6a2a\u65ad\u3067\u306e\u5408\u610f\u5f62\u6210\u306a\u3069\u8907\u6570\u306e\u8981\u7d20\u304c\u95a2\u4fc2\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u30a8\u30d0\u30ea\u30e5\u30a8\u30fc\u30c8\u3067\u306f\u3001\u88fd\u85ac\u4f01\u696d\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u4e88\u6e2c\u80fd\u529b\u5411\u4e0a\u3092\u652f\u63f4\u3059\u308b\u5404\u7a2e\u30b5\u30fc\u30d3\u30b9\u3092\u63d0\u4f9b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u69cb\u7bc9\u304b\u3089\u76e3\u67fb\u30ec\u30d3\u30e5\u30fc\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u62c5\u5f53\u8005\u5411\u3051\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30cb\u30f3\u30b0\u307e\u3067\u5e45\u5e83\u304f\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u2713 \u3053\u3093\u306a\u65b9\u306b\u304a\u3059\u3059\u3081<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u898b\u76f4\u3057\u305f\u3044<\/li>\n<li>\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3092\u5411\u4e0a\u3055\u305b\u305f\u3044<\/li>\n<li>\u4e0a\u5e02\u54c1\u306b\u5408\u308f\u305b\u305f\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u5b9f\u65bd\u3057\u305f\u3044<\/li>\n<li>\u793e\u5185\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u3092\u6a19\u6e96\u5316\u3057\u305f\u3044<\/li>\n<li>\u30c1\u30fc\u30e0\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u30ec\u30d9\u30eb\u3092\u5e95\u4e0a\u3052\u3057\u305f\u3044<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.evaluate.com\/ja\/solutions\/pharma-forecasting-platform\/\">\u304a\u5ba2\u69d8\u306e\u8981\u4ef6\u306b\u5408\u308f\u305b\u305f\u30ab\u30b9\u30bf\u30de\u30a4\u30ba\u30c9\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u69cb\u7bc9<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n<p><u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.evaluate.com\/ja\/solutions\/pharmaceutical-forecasting-software\/\">\u75ab\u5b66\u3001\u58f2\u4e0a\u4e88\u6e2c\u3001\u304c\u3093\u9818\u57df\u3001\u60a3\u8005\u30d5\u30ed\u30fc\u306b\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3057\u305f\u3001Excel\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u30bd\u30d5\u30c8\u30a6\u30a7\u30a2<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n<p><u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.evaluate.com\/ja\/solutions\/evaluate-pharma\/\">\u904e\u53bb\u3068\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u30fb\u30b7\u30a7\u30a2\u3092\u5206\u6790\u3057\u4eca\u5f8c\u306e\u5c55\u958b\u3092\u898b\u636e\u3048\u308b\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30fb\u30a4\u30f3\u30c6\u30ea\u30b8\u30a7\u30f3\u30b9<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n<p><u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.evaluate.com\/ja\/consulting\/forecasting-consulting\/\">\u65e2\u5b58\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u691c\u8a3c\u304b\u3089\u91cd\u8981\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u306e\u6e96\u5099\u3001\u7d44\u7e54\u5168\u4f53\u3067\u306e\u6574\u5408\u6027\u5f37\u5316\u307e\u3067\u652f\u63f4\u3059\u308b\u76e3\u67fb\u30b5\u30fc\u30d3\u30b9<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n<p><u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.evaluate.com\/ja\/solutions\/forecasting-training\/\">\u30c1\u30fc\u30e0\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u30ec\u30d9\u30eb\u3092\u5e95\u4e0a\u3052\u30fb\u6a19\u6e96\u5316\u3059\u308b\u533b\u85ac\u54c1\u4e88\u6e2c\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30cb\u30f3\u30b0<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u6539\u5584\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3068\u3001\u591a\u304f\u306e\u4f01\u696d\u306f\u307e\u305a\u300c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u300d\u3084\u300c\u8a08\u7b97\u30ed\u30b8\u30c3\u30af\u300d\u306b\u76ee\u3092\u5411\u3051\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u30a8\u30d0\u30ea\u30e5\u30a8\u30fc\u30c8\u3067\u306f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u524d\u306b\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u3079\u304d\u3082\u306e\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u308c\u304c\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u8a2d\u8a08\u306e\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u5247\u3067\u3059\u3002 \u826f\u3044\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u306f\u5171\u901a\u70b9\u304c [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43],"tags":[],"content-hub":[],"template-style":[],"class_list":["post-63033","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article"],"acf":{"use_alternative_header_image":"No (delete to use alternative)","alternative_header_image":null,"banner_image":"","author_image":"","author":"","author_title":"","author_image_copy":"","author_copy":"","author_title_copy":"","form_field":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forcast Lesson\u2461\u512a\u308c\u305f\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e4\u539f\u5247\uff08CATS\uff09 | Evaluate<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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