More in hope than expectation: Biopharma in 2023

Few people are expecting biopharma to stage a spectacular comeback in 2023 but what can we reasonably hope for - and when?

I joined the world of biopharma in 2022 and it seems I didn’t pick a vintage year. M&A activity was weak, share prices plummeted and IPOs were all but non-existent. However, I have chosen not to take it personally and now we’re well into January it’s time to see what might be on the horizon for 2023. Is an improvement in deal making on the cards? Are there any potential blockbusters heading for the market? Was the rather quiet JP Morgan Healthcare conference a sign of things to come?

Realistically, the market isn’t going to recover overnight. And the state of the global economy is unlikely to help speed things along. However, the fact that a patent cliff is looming for many of the big pharma players will bring some urgency to the M&A shopping list. While smaller players are still reluctant to accept current valuations after the highs of 2021, the reality is that they’re going to need funding one way or another. Hands will soon be forced. 

Evaluate’s forecasts show that Comirnaty’s brief stint at the top of sales pile will come to an end this year with Keytruda set to take the top spot. Covid’s impact remains uncertain, however, so expect to see several vaccines and therapies in the top 10 at least for the coming year. 

Perhaps more interesting is what’s going to be hitting the market for the first time. Alzheimer’s therapies feature twice in our list of biggest potential launches. Eisai, partnered with Biogen, won a green light in the US in the opening days of the year, and Eli Lilly is waiting to hear whether they can follow them on to the US market. After the Aduhelm shenanigans, this is will be a high profile area for some time. 

Another one to watch is Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro, already on the market for diabetes and now looking towards approval in obesity. If it gets the anticipated thumbs up this year, it’s likely to become one of the biggest new sales generators for the year – and some time to come. 

A little further back down the pipeline, there are some big R&D projects to keep an eye on. Anti-Tigit projects appear in our list of clinical catalysts for the year but the phrase “more in hope than expectation” is probably fairly deployed when it comes to this particular drugs class. 

This is just a hint of what 2023 might hold, of course. If you want more information (and why wouldn’t you?) then we have plenty to share. Amy Brown and Edwin Elmhirst from the Evaluate Vantage team will be discussing the highlights of the new 2023 Preview report in a webinar next week. If you have any questions to share for them to address in the session, drop us a line at [email protected] and we’ll try to cover it. 

The webinar is on 26th January at 3pm GMT/10am Eastern (and it’ll be available on demand afterwards) You can register here. Hope to see you there! 
 

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