Seagen delivers a triple blow

A painful cut to guidance by one of the sector’s success stories is far from what biotech needs right now. But this is exactly what Seagen delivered, yesterday taking the axe to sales forecasts for all three of its top cancer drugs. The best the sellside could muster was that the company tends to guide conservatively, but this provided little comfort: Seagen's stock tanked 15% at the open today, slicing more than $3bn from its valuation. The biggest disappointment came with the Her2 kinase inhibitor Tukysa; guidance implies that sales might have already peaked after a mere two years on the market. The breast cancer drug is struggling to compete against astonishingly good data from Daiichi and Astrazeneca’s Enhertu, and the bull case for Tukysa – that strong CNS activity would continue to drive use in patients with brain metastases – is starting to feel like sheer optimism. Investors will have to hope that Seagen is laying out the worst-case scenario for 2022, but there are more risks to long-term numbers on the horizon. Several clinical readouts are looming that have the potential to take the company's products into new markets, and positive outcomes could not be more crucial. 

Swinging the axe: Seagen's sales vs expectations
  Annual sales ($m)
  2020 (actual)    2021 (actual) 2021 (consensus)    2022 guidance  2022 consensus    2026 consensus 
Padcev 222   340 323   435-455 544   2,323
Tukysa 120   334 324   315-355 534   1,535
Adcetris  659   706 700   730-755 804   1,387
Source: Evaluate Pharma, company statements.


Looking for long-term potential: key readouts for Seagen
Padcev (currently approved in 3rd-line metastatic urothelial cancer) 
EV-103/Keynote-869 Cohort H, Padcev monotherapy, neoadjuvant MIBC  Asco-GU February 17-19
Cohort K, Padcev + Keytruda, 1st-line chemo ineligible metastatic urothelial (potential for AA) H2'22
EV-302 Padcev + Keytruda, 1st-line metastatic urothelial cancer 2023
Note: EU approval in 2nd-line setting paused for additional CHMP questions related to severe skin reactions. Final decision expected H2'22.
Tukysa (currently approved in 2nd-line metastatic breast cancer, on top of Herceptin and chemo)
Mountaineer Tukysa +/- Herceptin in previously treated, metastatic Her2+ colorectal cancer H2'22
Note: MIBC=muscle-invasive bladder cancer; AA= accelerated approval. Source: Company statements,

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