The outlook darkens for Illumina
Last week Evaluate Vantage highlighted the two crucial questions for Illumina’s shareholders; today it seems that both have been answered in a less than ideal way. First, the US FTC appealed a ruling that the sequencing group’s acquisition of liquid biopsy maker Grail was legitimate. Second, the European Commission has decided to prohibit the combination, which completed last summer despite the authorities’ not having granted permission. Naturally Illumina is to appeal the Commission’s verdict, insisting that the combined company could allow Galleri, Grail’s blood test for screening asymptomatic patients for more than 50 types of cancer, to reach the EU market at least five years earlier than under Grail alone. But Illumina is preparing for the worst anyway: it is mulling strategic alternatives for Grail in case its appeal is unsucccessful. It has also set cash aside to pay any fine the Commission may impose.
| Timeline of a contested deal | |
|---|---|
| Date | Event |
| Jan 10, 2016 | Illumina spins Grail out as a separate company |
| Mar 1, 2017 | Grail raises a $900m series B round, then the largest-ever VC funding deal |
| Sep 9, 2020 | Grail says it intends to float on the Nasdaq |
| Sep 21, 2020 | Illumina announces its intention to acquire Grail |
| Mar 30, 2021 | The FTC challenges the deal |
| Aug 18, 2021 | Illumina closes the acquisition, keeping Grail as a separate business unit |
| Sep 1, 2022 | US administrative law judge rules that the deal is not anticompetitive |
| Sep 2, 2022 | The FTC appeals administrative law judge's decision |
| Sep 6, 2022 | European Commission prohibits deal; Illumina says it will appeal the Commission's decision |
| Source: company releases; SEC filings; the FTC; the European Commission. | |
