Sanofi’s Provention buy could get other partners’ hopes up

So much for getting out of diabetes. After an uncharacteristically quiet 2022 for M&A, Sanofi today bought Provention Bio and its diabetes delaying product Tzield for $2.9bn. The deal treads familiar ground for Sanofi in another way: the French company struck a deal with Provention in October giving it right of first negotiation. A look at Sanofi’s recent buyouts show this pattern of trying before buying playing out several times, something that could raise hopes for the group’s other partners – especially as Sanofi has cash to spend, having missed out to Amgen on acquiring Horizon last year. As for Provention, this seems a fairly low-risk bet for Sanofi after several recent buyout blow-ups, with Tzield approved last November following a tortuous development history. But despite blockbuster sales forecasts there are questions about how big the product could become given its current need to identify people at risk of developing type 1 diabetes. A bigger use could be coming, with data from the Protect trial in newly diagnosed type 1 patients due in the second half. The 273% premium for Provention also raises the possibility of a competitive bidding process, though Sanofi has overpaid in the past.