2020 CGRP sales hopes look far fetched

The anti-CGRPs are expected to be a big biopharma growth driver: the class as a whole is expected to add $1bn in new sales next year. However, the latest figures from the three marketed migraine-prevention MAbs suggest that, unless things change drastically, this prediction is unlikely to become reality. All three products failed to meet analyst forecasts in the third quarter and look set to fall short of EvaluatePharma sellside consensus for the full year, putting longer-term predictions into further doubt. The last company to report its quarterly results, Teva, yesterday blamed Ajovy’s poor performance on the lack of an autoinjector, which it hopes to get approved by the end of the year. But there is no escaping the fact that the entire class has failed to live up to early hopes, even as companies switch from giving away their drugs for free to making patients pay for prescriptions. Price concessions are not helping, and payers are no doubt benefiting from fierce competition between the makers. This is only set to increase, with a US approval decision on Alder/Lundbeck’s intravenous MAb eptinezumab due in February; Biohaven also expects migraine prevention data soon with its oral candidate, rimegepant.

CGRP headaches: actual sales vs consensus ($m)
    Q3 2019  9mth 2019 Annual sales forecasts 
Product Company Consensus Actual Actual 2019e  2020e
Aimovig* Amgen 96 66 208 380 657
Emgality Lilly 52 48 96 194 523
Ajovy Teva 32 25 68 132 308
All CGRP targeting migraine products 822 1,857
*US sales, as reported by Amgen, only; Source: EvaluatePharma & analyst notes.

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