Suboxone decision puts pressure on Indivior follow-up products

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Dr Reddy’s launch of a generic version of Suboxone more than a year earlier than expected caused Indivior’s shares to crash 47% yesterday, and now the US speciality pharma group will need its follow-on opioid addiction treatment Sublocade to meet expectations. This is because a federal court yesterday vacated an injunction imposed on Dr Reddy’s in July when it had tried to launch, and this decision should allow the Indian company to begin shipping its version of the buprenorphine and naloxone sublingual film in December. This came 12-18 months earlier than expected, as Indivior’s intellectual property estate was expected to be strong enough to keep the injunction in place. Stifel analyst Max Herrmann said the decision should reduce Suboxone 2019 sales by 80%. EvaluatePharma’s sellside consensus data currently forecasts $533m in 2019. Sublocade, an extended-release buprenorphine injection, will not achieve similar sales until 2021, according to consensus.

Indivior's Suboxone-less future
  Global sales ($m)
Product 2019e 2020e 2022e 2024e
Sublocade 136 313 914 1,436
Perseris 19 62 118 172
Subutex 108 104 90 83
Buprenex 32 29 27 25
Total 295 508 1,148 1,717
Source: EvaluatePharma.

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