Will sales of any Covid-19 vaccine echo swine and avian flu shots?
Vaccine makers managed to respond pretty quickly to previous viral outbreaks – swine flu and avian flu specifically – and certain companies are still booking sales of these preventative shots, EvaluatePharma data show. South Korea's GC Pharma is a major supplier in Asia, while CSL is a big global player; the Australian company bought Novartis’s flu vaccines business back in 2014. Government stockpiles will be the major customers here. But the coronavirus is a different proposition, of course, and it is not yet known what technology might produce the first vaccine against Covid-19. Among the big beasts Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson have both said they are starting work, while Moderna is applying its RNA platform to the problem. Still, lessons learned during the swine flu outbreak a decade ago show why these big manufacturers might be cautious about the opportunity: both Glaxo and Baxter had substantial contracts cancelled as the threat of the virus abated. Given the trajectory of Covid-19 and the global disruption it is causing, it seems likely that any future vaccine could become part of stockpiles, and turn into products that look like those below.
|Fighting flu: vaccines developed for previous outbreaks|
|Avian flu vaccines||Swine flu vaccines|
|Prepandrix/Daronrix||Glaxosmithkline||H1N1 HA Flu Vaccine||Mitsubishi Tanabe|
|GC FLU||GC Pharma||Celtura/Focetria||CSL|
|Panflu||Sinovac Biotech||Green Flu-S||GC Pharma|
|Note: table and chart only includes products for which sales data are available. Source: EvaluatePharma.|