Will sales of any Covid-19 vaccine echo swine and avian flu shots?

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Vaccine makers managed to respond pretty quickly to previous viral outbreaks – swine flu and avian flu specifically – and certain companies are still booking sales of these preventative shots, EvaluatePharma data show. South Korea's GC Pharma is a major supplier in Asia, while CSL is a big global player; the Australian company bought Novartis’s flu vaccines business back in 2014. Government stockpiles will be the major customers here. But the coronavirus is a different proposition, of course, and it is not yet known what technology might produce the first vaccine against Covid-19. Among the big beasts Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson have both said they are starting work, while Moderna is applying its RNA platform to the problem. Still, lessons learned during the swine flu outbreak a decade ago show why these big manufacturers might be cautious about the opportunity: both Glaxo and Baxter had substantial contracts cancelled as the threat of the virus abated. Given the trajectory of Covid-19 and the global disruption it is causing, it seems likely that any future vaccine could become part of stockpiles, and turn into products that look like those below.

Fighting flu: vaccines developed for previous outbreaks
Avian flu vaccines    Swine flu vaccines 
Prepandrix/Daronrix Glaxosmithkline   H1N1 HA Flu Vaccine Mitsubishi Tanabe 
Emerflu Sanofi   Panenza Sanofi
Panvax/Audenz CSL   Pandemrix Glaxosmithkline
GC FLU GC Pharma   Celtura/Focetria CSL
Panflu Sinovac Biotech   Green Flu-S GC Pharma
      Panflu.1 Sinovac Biotech
Note: table and chart only includes products for which sales data are available. Source: EvaluatePharma. 

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