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Evaluate Forecasts Global Pharmaceutical Market to Be Worth $1.6tn in 2028

London, UK and Boston, MA – 15th August 2023: Global pharmaceutical revenues are forecast to grow at a compounded annual rate of 5.9% to 2028, with global prescription drug sales predicted to be worth $1.6tn in five years, according to the latest World Preview report published by Evaluate Ltd. The annual report, which details the future of the biopharmaceutical sector, forecasts that while the industry will have to work hard to navigate Pharma’s Age of Uncertainty in coming years, the top ten biggest drugs in 2028 will still pull in over $160bn.

The report, which draws on consensus forecast data from Evaluate Pharma and predictive data from Evaluate Omnium, indicates that in 2028:

  • Biggest growth drivers: developments in obesity, neurological conditions and cancer
  • Fastest-Growing Therapy Areas to 2028: Immunomodulators (+13.5%), Oncology (+11.4%) and Central Nervous System (+8.6%)
  • Changes in the top 10 companies: In 2028, Roche will be the largest company by prescription drug sales, with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly entering the top 10 for the first time
  • Top 3 drugs in 2028: Keytruda (Merck & co): Oncology, Dupixent (Sanofi): Immunomodulator, and Ozempic (Novo Nordisk): Diabetes

Mike Gallup, CEO of Norstella, Evaluate’s parent company said: “Key assumptions that have underpinned the pharmaceutical sector for so long – for example, the US market’s supreme profitability and reliance on big M&A to fuel growth – are being tested.

“The far-reaching Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), combined with increased scrutiny of M&A deals by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and increasing complexity around investment decisions, is behind many of the legislative, regulatory, and commercial unknowns that make this pharma’s Age of Uncertainty,” he said.

The IRA has already imposed curbs on above-inflation annual drug price rises this year. The first ten of the most costly Medicare drugs which will be subject to price negotiations, constrained by mandatory minimum discounts, will be announced in September 2023. Shorter payback periods for the most valuable drugs, plus the four-year difference in exclusivity granted to large versus small molecules, is already impacting pharma asset valuation, portfolio planning and dealmaking.

The impending patent cliff is also exerting pressure on the market, with a minimum of $118bn in lost sales due to patent expiries expected over the next five years. More efficient R&D could help to address these challenges by bringing more products to market, faster.
Gallup added: “Hunger for commercial or late-stage assets to alleviate the patent cliff and fill revenue gaps resulted in 12 deals worth more than $1 billion by mid-2023, however, identifying which assets to develop or buy has become much more complicated.”

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