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Evaluate Releases 2030 Forecasts for Global Pharmaceutical Market

2024 World Preview Report shows a market set to hit $1.7tn in 2030, driven by a shift to “big drugs for big diseases” such as obesity  

LONDON – 10 July 2024 – Evaluate, the leading provider of market insights for the pharmaceutical industry, today released its 2024 World Preview Report with updated forecasts through 2030 for the global pharmaceutical market. Emerging from an age of uncertainty, the report shows that the market has given way to more predictable realities, with worldwide total prescription drug sales topping $1.7tn by 2030 – an increased growth rate of 7.7%.

Obesity Drugs Loom Large in 2030 Forecast

GLP-1 obesity drugs will help drive record overall prescription drug sales growth and catapult Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly into the top of the company rankings by the end of the decade. Five metabolic diseases drugs – Ozempic, Mounjaro, Wegovy and Zepbound and Cagrisema will pull in over $100bn combined by that time.

“The obesity market is still in its infancy,” said Daniel Chancellor, Vice President of Thought Leadership at Norstella, Evaluate’s parent company. “In 2023, Wegovy and Zepbound pulled in a fraction of the billions of dollars Evaluate estimates the space will generate by 2030. With late-stage clinical trials in a range of additional diseases, and a patient impact that rivals that of the statins, GLP-1 sales of $100 billion by 2030 may actually be a temporary ceiling.”

Beyond obesity, the report highlights a shift towards “big drugs for big diseases”, in part as a reaction to the ongoing patent challenges faced by some of the industry’s biggest players. In 2028, at-risk sales will reach $100bn. Other key findings in the report include:

  • Oncology will remain the most valuable therapy area into 2030, with over $300bn in forecasted sales across all products.
  • Inflammatory disease will account for two of the top 10 drugs in 2030 (Dupixent and Skyrizi), another sign of the shift away from rare diseases.
  • A hot innovation era is driving new modalities and technologies, such as antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), cell/gene therapies, and radiopharmaceuticals, all of which will grow steeply to 2030.
  • The top-ten most valuable pipeline candidates boast a Net Present Value of over $250bn, with a strong focus on endocrine and a resurgent CNS.

“While the outlook remains buoyant into 2030, there are risks to the market as pharma adapts to other realities,” added Chancellor. “Pharma’s steepest post-expiry sales drops are yet to come when several key drugs lose protection in 2027/8 and factors such as the Inflation Reduction Act, rising cost of R&D and political uncertainties remain. ”

Additional analysis is included in the full report which is available here and webinar featuring discussion and insight from the report will take place on 11th July. Registration is available here.

 


 

About Evaluate Ltd 

Since 1996, Evaluate has provided the life sciences industry with the data, insight and intelligence to facilitate confident decision making on high-value investments in treatments and markets. We enable our clients to embed our proprietary & industry data into their workflows, tools and processes so they can work more effectively and efficiently. For more information about Evaluate, visit www.evaluate.com and follow us on LinkedIn and X. 

 About Norstella 

Norstella consists of several prominent pharmaceutical solutions providers—Citeline, Evaluate, MMIT, Panalgo, and The Dedham Group—united by a shared mission: to smooth the path to life-saving therapies for patients and providers. Norstella offers comprehensive insights throughout the drug development lifecycle, leveraging unparalleled data, cutting-edge technology, and expert insights and consultancy. For more information, visit Norstella and follow on LinkedIn. 

 For Media Inquiries, Please Contact: 

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