Covid-19 Update

Evaluate has added a new chart to its Covid-19 Update to visualise the potential peak of the coronavirus crisis in the hardest hit top 20 economies. The chart looks at the average number of deaths over a seven-day period. Examining the peak is important as countries are unlikely to start scaling down lockdown restrictions until the number of fatalities has passed the peak.

May 20: Today’s chart confirms previous observations that once a peak in seven-day average mortality is reached the rate of decline in the number of deaths does not match the ramp up. And while the majority of developed countries look to have reached their seven-day average crest, France did observe a new mini peak over the last week. Brazil, the worst affected country in Latin America, still appears not to have reached its zenith and continues to report worryingly high single-day mortality rates.

However, even those countries past their peak are showing a stubborn plateauing: The US’s 1,600 seven-day average is only 16 lower than last week’s. This slow reduction in seven-day averages could impact governments’ decisions on what is an acceptable balance between economic damage, social interactions and mortality levels.

Round up of cases and deaths

Worldwide – The total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases globally has now passed the 4.8 million mark, helped by a small rise in the seven-day average for new infections. The total number of deaths worldwide has hit 325,784.

US – Despite falling infection and mortality rates the US remains the world’s worst affected country, with its 1,528,568 Covid-19 cases accounting for just under a third of those across the globe. 

Europe – There was good news in Europe as EU cases dropped by 23% on the previous week, coming in at 23,185. The fall was helped by the UK, Spain and Italy continuing to trend down in terms of new cases. However, both Germany and France reported small upward trends in new cases. The number of new cases across the continent will be watched closely as many countries have entered the second phase of their lockdown easing measures, even as the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has warned there could be a second wave of infection in the winter.

Asia – New Covid-19 cases across Asia have jumped by 21% over last week’s numbers, with much of the increase driven by India, Pakistan and Singapore. China, South Korea and now Japan remained stable, with Japan only recording 20 new cases today. Such is the slowing of infections in South Korea, the country is opening up its high schools, with all schools set to open in the coming weeks.

ROW – In stark contrast the day-to-day situation in Brazil has continued to worsen, despite average mortality numbers falling. The country recently reported over 1,000 deaths in a single day and the total number of people who have been infected with the coronavirus is 17,403, making Brazil the country with the third highest number of cases, behind the US and Russia. There are also concerns that the numbers could be higher given the limited amount of testing in Brazil. Despite the growing death toll and infection rates President Jair Bolsonaro is pressing to end current lockdown restrictions. Peru and Chile respectively reported 4,550 and 3,520 cases.