Evaluate's COVID-19 Update
Data-driven analysis of new COVID-19 cases in the world's top 20 economies.
Data are updated daily at 4pm BST. Commentary is updated weekly. Last commentary update July 30, 2020.
July 30: With the World Health Organization previously warning that too many countries are heading in the wrong direction with Covid-19 outbreaks, more nations this week reported rises in their average seven-day new infections, suggesting that a second wave of infections could be on the way.
However, there has been no corresponding rise in seven-day average mortality rates in any countries, but given the delay between infections and mortality this number could start rising again in the coming weeks.
The worsening situation in the US saw the country overtake Brazil in terms of seven-day average mortality. America also continued to lead the world for number of deaths as the virus continued to spread, with states such as Florida and Texas reporting ICU beds nearing capacity.
The situation in Mexico, previously third in seven-day mortality rates, continued to show improvement. Conversely, the worsening situation in India allowed it to jump into the number three position, despite millions of people being forced back into lockdown.
Roundup of cases and deaths
Worldwide – Not only has the global Covid-19 infections rate now passed 17 million, but new cases are now growing at 1 million per week. Again the US and Brazil were the main contributors to the rapidly rising global infection rate, but India saw total cases rise to 1.5 million, a 50% increase from this time last week. Russia is also climbing up the rankings and now has the fourth highest number of infections globally.
US – In a clear example of the country’s inability to contain the coronavirus, the US has this week seen total deaths pass yet another grim milestone, with over 150,000 Americans dying of Covid-19. The country now has over 4 million infected individuals. The infection statistics have come as the US economy today reported its worst quarter since World War 2, with GDP shrinking by almost 33%.
Europe – While Europe as a whole is still keeping infection rates just about under control, new data have shown the extent of the failure to control the disease in the UK. According to the UK’s Office for National Statistics, the country suffered the highest rate of excess deaths of 21 European countries during the Covid-19 pandemic. Deaths from all causes that exceed the five-year average for the time of year is considered the fairest way of gauging deaths from a disease when performing an international comparison. About 65,000 more people than usual have died from all causes across the UK so far this year, the highest total in Europe. The official death toll for Covid-19 is just over 46,000, still by far the worst in Europe. The French government has ruled out a new lockdown despite a localised outbreak in the Quiberon region in the north-west of the country.
Latin America and ROW – More than 90,000 people have now died of Covid-19 in Brazil. Cases have climbed above 2.5 million as the country struggles to control the virus. Mexico is some way behind Brazil, but with more than 45,000 Covid-19 deaths it has the third-highest pandemic death toll in the world, and is on course to overtake the UK to claim second place. The outbreak in South Africa is also intensifying, despite the country having instituted lockdown measures including a night-time curfew. The latest figures show more than 470,000 confirmed cases and nearly 7,500 deaths..
Asia – The scale of pandemic’s effects in India has been highlighted by a study showing that more than half the people living in the slums of Mumbai have had the coronavirus. Mumbai has reported more than 110,000 infections and more than 6,000 deaths so far; in India as a whole the death toll stands at nearly 35,000. With more than 270,000 Covid-19 cases in Saudi Arabia the country is putting in place strict measures to try to prevent further outbreaks during the five-day hajj pilgrimage to Mecca. Attendance is being limited to 10,000 people who already reside in the country.
|Coronavirus in top 20 economic powers|
|Country||Total cases||Total deaths||New daily cases: reported on 31 July||Daily cases: reported on 30 July||New daily cases: 7-day avg||New cases vs 7-day average|
|United States of America||4,495,014||153,733||68,032||74,985||65,514||Up|
|Source: ECDC as of 14:00 GMT and Evaluate research.|