Evaluate's COVID-19 Update
Data-driven analysis of new COVID-19 cases in the world's top 20 economies.
July 8: In an indication of just how hard it will be for the world to return to any semblance of normality in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic, this week has seen as return to strict quarantine measures in countries and cities across the world who had previously eased their lockdown efforts.
Most notable has been the reintroduction of restrictions in various states in the US where the virus has surged once again. While the sharp rise in new cases – 57,473 today – has yet to translate into a rise in seven-day mortality, the lag between infections and deaths tends to last longer seven days, so this number will be keenly watched in the coming weeks.
Brazil, which overtook the US back in June on the seven-day average mortality metric, now appears to be on a downward trend here, but even with this reduction the country is still leading the world for average weekly deaths. Worryingly the country reported over 45,000 new infections today, more than twice the number recorded yesterday.
Round up of cases and deaths
Worldwide – The total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases is approaching another bleak milestone, being forecast to pass the 12 million mark this week. Currently standing at 11.8 million, this marker could be hit as early as tomorrow if today’s new case figure of 215,612 is repeated.
Much of the current increase in new cases continued to be driven by the worrying surge in the US. High numbers of new infections in Brazil, India and Mexico have also contributed to the growth in cases.
US – The US’s inability to get a grip on Covid-19 cases has been demonstrated by the number of total Covid-19 cases now nearing the three million mark, with daily infection rates regularly running at around 50,000. With debates around mask wearing and social distancing still raging in the US there are some experts are forecasting that daily infection rates of 100,000 could become a reality. The alarming jump in case numbers comes as President Trump this week confirmed his plans to withdraw the US from World Health Organisation.
Europe – The overall picture of relative stability in Europe is masking local outbreaks in various towns and cities across the continent and resulting in borders between European states that had previously been reopened being closed once again. Today the Netherlands barred people from Serbia and Montenegro, and outbreaks in Bulgaria and Romania have prompted the Austrian government to issue travel warnings. The decision to reimpose lockdown measures in Serbia’s Belgrade has led to violent street protests. In the UK parts of the city of Leicester have been returned to strict quarantine rules following a sharp rise in cases. The shifting situation on the continent is likely to continue as countries monitor the effects of easing measures and infection rates.
Latin America and ROW – After several months of downplaying the impact of Covid-19 Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro has tested positive for the illness. He joins 1.67 million citizens of his country who have also had had their infections confirmed. The more than doubling in new infections over the last two days offers little reassurance that the situation will improve anytime soon. Mexico also continued to see a rise in cases, with the country now registering the fourth highest death rate in the world, behind the US, Brazil and the UK. An outbreak in Australia has resulted in the closure of the border between the states of New South Wales and Victoria, and residents of the city of Melbourne must return to strict lockdown measures for six weeks.
Asia and the Middle East – While India and Russia continued to be hard hit by the pandemic, both countries appeared to making progress on getting a handle on infections as new cases fell compared with the seven day averages. A more than tripling of new infections since yesterday marks one the biggest one-day rises the country has seen in weeks and is bound to be monitored closely.
|Coronavirus in top 20 economic powers|
|Country||Total cases||Total deaths||New daily cases: reported on 8 July||Daily cases: reported on 7 July||New daily cases: 7-day avg||New cases vs 7-day average|
|United States of America||2,996,098||131,610||57,473||49,990||51,603||Up|
|Source: ECDC as of 14:00 GMT and Evaluate research.|