Abbvie puts (some) numbers on expected Humira erosion

During Abbvie’s fourth-quarter earnings call today the big question on everyone’s mind was: just how quickly will Humira sales erode following the recent US entrance of biosimilar competition? Abbvie put out some surprisingly detailed guidance, at least for this year, for its ageing mega-blockbuster. The group expects Humira to sell $13.7bn in 2023, which equates to US sales shrinkage of 37%. While this looks like a big drop, it is in fact at the lower end of the group’s previous erosion projection of 35-55%. Still, earnings guidance disappointed, with the group pencilling in 2023 adjusted diluted EPS of $10.70-11.10, versus sellside consensus of $11.63. $10.70 will also be the floor for EPS in 2024, execs said today. Despite being asked numerous times, they would not put a number on expected Humira revenue next year. In 2025 and beyond, Humira should have reached a “stable tail”, Abbvie’s chief executive, Rick Gonzalez, said. The pressure is on the likes of Skyrizi and Rinvoq to pick up the slack – if the former meets 2023 expectations, it will be well on the way to selling $10bn by 2025, as predicted by Abbvie.

Abbvie's 2023 guidance for selected products
Product 2023e sales ($bn)
Humira 13.7
Skyrizi 7.4
Rinvoq 3.7
Imbruvica 3.5
Venclexta 2.2
Total sales 52.0
Source: Approximate assumptions given during company Q4 earnings call.

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