Pfizer sees $15bn of 2021 Covid sales; could it do $30bn?

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If Pfizer has got its sums right then the sellside might seriously have to lift forecasts for its Covid-19 vaccine Comirnaty. In today’s fourth-quarter earnings report the group said it expected to book $15bn of Comirnaty sales this year, but there is apparently room to approach a number twice as high. The $15bn forecast comprises only the 780 million or so doses Pfizer has already contracted for, including 200 million to the US for $3.9bn and 300 million to the EU. But the company can “potentially deliver around two billion doses by the end of 2021”, though because the market is subject to government contracting it says it is responsible not to bake such numbers into revenue forecasts. Pfizer is splitting Comirnaty gross margins 50/50 with Biontech, but will book sales globally except in Turkey and Germany, and expects a high-20s percentage pretax profit margin on the vaccine’s sales. In December the sellside saw Moderna’s mRNA-1273 as this year’s top-selling Covid-19 vaccine, and though some analysts now expect this to sell $11bn in 2021 Pfizer has jumped ahead; the first forecasts have also emerged for Astrazeneca’s AZD1222, from Leerink, which sees $1.9bn this year and $3bn in 2022.

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