Advice to biotech leaders: forecasting for launch

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Advice to biotech leaders: forecasting for launch

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As a biotech approaches commercial launch, the forecast often still carries the shape it was given in the early days: built by finance, before a commercial team existed. In this video, I explain why adding a commercial perspective as launch nears is critical. In the past I’ve seen companies drawing on a client forecast that treated several distinct patient groups as one and lost transparency and flexibility as a result. I also share how lean biotech teams can use flexible resourcing to get a new forecast quickly, without building capacity they cannot afford to keep.

Find out more in this short video.

What’s one piece of advice you’d give to a biotech CEO as they approach a commercial launch?

So I am thinking primarily from the forecasting perspective, and I think that often we see when we’re working in biotechs that the forecast will develop from an initial financial perspective, fairly early on in the product cycle, you don’t necessarily have a big commercial team around it. And as a product develops and gets to which you build up that commercial team, I think that developing a commercial focus and driven forecast is critical. It’s not that finance-driven forecasts are wrong. It’s not that they’re bad, but they come from a financial lens or finance perspective. So to give an example, we’re working with a customer a year or two ago, and they had a finance-driven forecast. And when we looked at it, there wasn’t a split of the market in terms of the patients. This product could target two or three different groups of patients, and ultimately it would achieve different things in those different groups of patients and be used in different amounts.

Just wasn’t in there. These patients were just lumped into one. And that ultimately meant that the forecast was not very transparent and not very flexible to run different situations. And that’s because from a finance team’s perspective, that wasn’t the most important aspect. They didn’t focus on it. So if you don’t shift, or at least take your finance forecast and enhance it with a commercial perspective, as you get close to long-term line, the forecast with the strategy of the product, it’s going to become more difficult because the commercial strategy of the product is not reflected in the forecast. Resourcing for biotechs. They need to be quite flexible in resourcing, they don’t have the massive teams that big pharma have. So finding people to work with and solutions which allow that support to dial up and down and that resource to be available. We have several offerings which allow customers to be quite independent or draw on resource.

So if they’re in times of need where suddenly someone turns around and says, I need another forecast for another indication for that product that they’ve never looked at, pick up the phone day or two sorted. But if it’s like, oh, next month we plan to do this, I’ll do it on my own because I’ve got capacity, because they don’t have the CapEx to be able to expand their teams and have residual resource sitting there. And they’ve got to stay quite lean typically in biotech. So approaching a flexible resourcing perspective from the forecast and then embedding that in how you approach it, can bring real value and give you lots of flexibility.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Biotech forecasts usually start with finance, early in the product cycle, before a commercial team exists. As the product develops and that team grows, a commercially driven forecast becomes critical. A finance-driven forecast is a sound starting point, and adding a commercial perspective keeps it aligned with the product’s strategy as launch approaches.

The commercial strategy of the product can be missing from the forecast. In one client example, the product could target two or three different patient groups, but the finance-driven forecast lumped them into one. The result was a forecast that was not very transparent and not flexible enough to run different scenarios, because patient segmentation was not a priority for the finance team.

A product can achieve different things in different patient groups and be used in different amounts in each. Splitting the market by patient group makes the forecast more transparent and makes it easier to test different situations. It also means the forecast reflects the commercial strategy of the product.

Biotechs do not have the large teams that big pharma companies have, and they typically need to stay lean. They also lack the capital expenditure to expand their teams and keep spare capacity on hand. Support that can be dialed up and down lets them match resource to need.

A flexible model lets a team work independently when it has capacity and draw on external resource when it does not. If someone suddenly needs a forecast for another indication that the team has never looked at, support can be in place within a day or two. Building this flexibility into the forecasting approach brings real value and a lot of room to adapt.