Evaluate’s annual World Preview report is a must-read for many in the pharma industry. Each year, we pull together some of our key pharma forecasts to build a picture of the future of this ever-changing market, from the biggest drugs and players, to the therapy areas in growth or decline.
The report is excellent (not an entirely unbiased opinion, I admit), but actually I think the best way to get the most from it is to join the webinar in which our report author, Melanie Senior is joined by our own Paul Verdin and Daniel Chancellor to talk through the data, unpick what it means for the industry, and to investigate some of the most interesting trends. This year’s conversation covered a lot of ground.
If you missed the session, you’ll be pleased to know it’s available on demand. Meanwhile, here are three key takeaways from the discussion to whet your appetite.
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- Obesity drugs – to pay or not to pay? We had to cover obesity drugs given they’re the key driver of the 7.7% growth rate to 2030 that headlines the report. But the question of how payers can pick up the tab for the likes of Wegovy and Zepbound remains unanswered. Over 100m people worldwide could potentially benefit from these drugs, representing a huge cost for payers who agree to fund them. For now, US government insurers aren’t obliged to reimburse obesity medicines. But that will change as these medicines are shown to improve other conditions, like heart, kidney or liver disease – which could in turn lead to significant downstream savings (and which help explain the eye-watering sales forecasts for these drugs.) For now, we can’t afford to pay for these medicines. But given their potential health impact, we also can’t afford not to. Time will tell how fast competition pushes down prices
- It’s not ALL about obesity. The panel noted that across the pharma industry, things do feel a bit…dramatic. There are a lot of moving parts and we are in an extraordinary era of innovation that stretches beyond the GLP-1s. When you add things like radiopharmaceuticals, ADCs, cell and gene therapies and CNS innovations to the mix, there is a real sense of excitement and expectation. Many of our attendees also asked questions about these areas which we touch on in the report, but if you’d like to learn more, you can read our recent eBooks on Evaluating ADCs and Evaluating Radiopharmaceuticals.
- Beneath the surface, uncertainty remains. Last year’s World Preview theme was the “Age of Uncertainty” so the panel revisited this in their discussion. Has that uncertainty gone away, or has the excitement about these innovations just overshadowed it? We agreed it’s the latter. The Inflation Reduction Act remains in place, but we still don’t fully understand its implications – and legal wrangling continues. With elections taking place around the world, a complex geopolitical environment and other regulatory issues such as the US Biosecure Act mean that pharma forecasts are – as always – subject to change.
If you weren’t able to attend the webinar, the on-demand version is here. You can also find all our World Preview content in this handy hub. Take a look to find out which companies and drugs will be in the top 10 in 2030 and to read our review of the most promising pipeline projects and analysis of pharma R&D spend growth to the end of the decade.
