Immunology is one of pharma’s most valuable and fastest-growing therapy areas, with forecast compound annual growth of over 9% and anticipated combined sales of $200 billion by 2032. Multi-indication immunology blockbusters dominate the landscape across more than 100 autoimmune and inflammatory conditions, many sharing underlying biological mechanisms. That “pipeline-in-a-product” profile appeals strongly to companies managing steep patent cliffs elsewhere, driving sustained M&A, active licensing and rapid scientific evolution. In the latest episode of Evaluate Spotlight, Melanie Senior and I cover the big themes in this fascinating area.
The near-term picture is dominated by a handful of exceptional franchises. AbbVie’s Skyrizi is forecast to reach $32 billion in 2032 sales across five approved indications. Sanofi and Regeneron’s Dupixent has accumulated 18 FDA approvals since 2017 and is forecast to reach peak sales of almost $29bn in 2030. AbbVie’s JAK inhibitor Rinvoq holds ten. Argenx’s Vyvgart, approved for the rare neuromuscular condition myasthenia gravis, is forecast to triple its sales over the next five years. These are exceptional assets, and the companies behind them are ranked accordingly, when looking at their immunology portfolios.
But product concentration at the top creates an element of vulnerability as those few – huge – immunology blockbusters face loss of exclusivity. AbbVie is among the pharma companies most exposed to patent expiries at the start of next decade, and that exposure is likely a key driver of its recent dealmaking. Its $10.9 billion acquisition of Apogee Therapeutics secured zumilokibart, an IL-13-targeted asset engineered for dosing every three to six months, against the two-to-four week cycles typical of comparable drugs including Dupixent.
New modalities and the deals behind them
New modalities are reshaping the dealmaking landscape too. CAR-T cell therapies and T-cell engagers (TCEs), developed in oncology, are now being applied across a range of autoimmune diseases. For example, new targets like TL1A are attracting significant capital. Merck paid $10.8 billion for Prometheus Biosciences and Roche paid $7.1 billion for Telavant, both in 2023, to secure assets in this space. Precision approaches targeting disease-causing autoantibodies are gaining ground, with Lilly’s $2.9 billion Merida Biosciences acquisition a recent marker. And combinations of established mechanisms, engineered for longer dosing intervals and greater convenience, are multiplying as companies protect maturing franchises while reducing treatment burden for patients.
The Evaluate Spotlight webinar and report on immunology covers all of this in detail, including top products and companies forecast through 2032, the deals defining the market’s next phase, and the mechanisms most likely to drive future value. It’s well worth taking a look if immunology features in your pipeline or portfolio thinking.
