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What’s Behind Pharma’s Growth Boost?

One of the milestones in the Evaluate year is the publication of our annual World Preview report, now in its 17th year. If you’re not familiar with the piece, it’s a deep dive into the state of the biopharma market, using Evaluate’s pharma forecasts to uncover key trends, challenges and drivers of growth (or indeed headwinds) for the coming years. This year, our pharma forecasts have been extended to 2030 so the report is reaching out to the next decade.

Our team is putting the finishing touches to the report, and I am poring through the detail ahead of the webinar which will accompany it on 11th July. Like last year, I will be talking through some of the most interesting data points alongside report author, Melanie Senior and my colleague Daniel Chancellor, VP of Thought Leadership. It’s a great chance to go beyond the numbers and look at what’s driving any changes since 2023 and – more importantly – what that means for the pharma market.

I don’t want to give too much away at this stage, but there are three areas that I think we’ll be focusing on during the discussion. The theme this year is “Pharma’s Growth Boost” which is rather more positive than last year’s “Age of Uncertainty” and tells you a little about the direction of travel of some of the numbers.

  1. Big diseases are back with a bang. It won’t surprise you to learn that the word “obesity” will feature more than once in this year’s World Preview! The 2030 forecasts include the top 10 drugs by worldwide sales and the GLP-1 agonists will be getting a shoutout as one of the driving forces in a 7.7% CAGR between now and 2030.
  2. Innovation is driving some hot new modalities. There’s much more to the forecasts than metabolic diseases, particularly when we look at pipeline assets. In the webinar, we’ll be touching on some of the technologies underpinning a resurgence in CNS and respiratory therapy areas, as well as fascinating new mechanisms like ADCs, radiopharmaceuticals, and cell & gene therapies.
  3. Uncertainty hasn’t gone away. One area we’ll be discussing is the ongoing complexity of the regulatory and legislative landscape. We’ve already had questions from our webinar audience about the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), potential impact of the US election and geopolitical challenges. Given Big Pharma’s aversion to risk, there is still a lot to navigate, and while we won’t be able provide answers to these knotty problems, we’ll certainly try to unpick some of the key threads.

There will be plenty to talk about and Melanie, Daniel and I hope you’ll be able to join us for the webinar on 11th July. You can register here, and if you have any questions you’d like us to address, you can raise them when you register. I hope you see you there and in the meantime, stay tuned for the report, infographic and much more!


Paul Verdin

SVP, Head of Consulting & Analytics


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