Evaluate Vantage 2021 Preview

Biopharma’s role in trying to bring the COVID-19 pandemic to an end has made household names of companies large and small, and cutting-edge technologies like mRNA vaccines are being discussed on the front pages of newspapers. So it's little wonder that the drug development sector is under intense scrutiny from investors, politicians and the wider world.

Companies from all areas of the industry have enjoyed the halo effect of this focus, and many pharma and biotech companies will start 2021 bolstered by substantial financial support and, in some cases, eye-watering valuations. But with expectations so high, how can the industry plan the path forward to success?

Report Highlights

• Sales of COVID-19 vaccines are expected to reach between $10-15bn in 2021, with BNT162b2 (BioNTech / Pfizer) forecast as the top seller; however, mRNA-1273 (Moderna) is expected to be the market leader by 2026
• Keytruda (Merck & Co) is expected to add the most new sales next year, with $2.7bn in growth and $16.8bn in total sales.
• Oncology continues to be a major driver of growth, with six of the ten biggest new sales generators and four of the top ten best-selling products.
• Roche narrowly beats Novartis as the top company in 2021, with forecast revenues of $51.3bn and $51bn respectively, followed closely by AbbVie.
• Tirzepatide (Eli Lilly) maintains its ranking as the most highly valued R&D project, with a net present value of $12.7bn. The combined net present value for the top ten R&D projects is nearly $60bn.
• Aducanumab (Biogen) is the biggest potential launch in 2021, with $4.8bn in 2026 forecast sales, and the FDA’s decision on the Alzheimer’s project is one of 2021's biggest events.